Once a global leader in climate action, the EU now faces a crisis of commitment. Despite its ambitious Paris Agreement and European Green Deal, Europe's leadership risks faltering as negotiators gather in Brazil for COP30. A decade ago, the Paris climate agreement was a landmark deal, achieved at COP21, that aimed to limit global heating to 1.5C. This success was built on a strong coalition between the US and China, a partnership that is now strained. Europe's leadership in climate action was further solidified with the European Green Deal, which set a 2050 climate neutrality goal and introduced comprehensive measures. However, the EU's efforts were not without flaws. European politicians overlooked the social impact of the energy transition, and the EU's engagement with those affected by the changes was inadequate. Despite these shortcomings, the EU's actions demonstrated its commitment to the cause.
Today, Europe's climate leadership is at risk due to various factors. The US' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the Trump administration's efforts to undermine other countries' commitments, including those in Europe, play a significant role. Additionally, countries in the global south, such as India, Indonesia, Gulf states, and Turkey, refuse to compromise growth for climate, blaming the global north, especially Europe, for the crisis. The internal 'greenlash' within Europe further exacerbates the situation, as nationalist and far-right groups turn the Green Deal into a political bogeyman, claiming it will weaken Europe and benefit China. This narrative has spread, causing a shift in the EU's climate policies.
The EU has weakened its 2040 greenhouse gas reduction plans, embedded review clauses for economic downturns, and relied on scientifically dubious carbon credits. Far-right governments in Italy and Central/Eastern Europe have led the push for retreat, delaying emissions trading scheme expansions and deforestation regulations. The EU may also delay or dilute its 2035 ban on combustion engine cars. These rollbacks are seen as Europe shooting itself in the foot, as the continent's energy security and prosperity depend on climate leadership. Europe's backtracking makes China appear more virtuous, and its global standing as a climate leader is undermined.
The EU's relationship with the global south is souring, reducing its combined clout to press China for responsibility. However, Europe remains at the forefront of net-zero targets, policies, and finance. The key to success lies in Europe leading the charge in climate action and finding political common ground with the global south once again.
